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Overtime Analysis

$2.25 billion over budget (FY2023-2025). Is overtime helping solve crimes or just inflating costs?

7 questions answered
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The Overtime Crisis

FY2024 Actual: $1.18 billion (217% over $369M budget)

FY2025 Projected: $1.35 billion (263% over $372M budget)

3-Year Budget Gap: $2.25 billion over projections

Key Pattern: City budgets have consistently underestimated NYPD overtime by an average of 35% over the past decade. Under Mayor Adams (former NYPD Captain), overtime increased 119% and now represents 37% of total citywide overtime.

Reform Efforts: Mayor Adams issued directives on OT management in September 2023 and December 2024. In November 2024, Jessica Tisch was appointed as 48th NYPD Commissioner and committed to enhanced oversight of all OT at each rank and tenure, including implementing an OT management plan. Despite these commitments, overtime continues to grow.

Question 26

Is overtime actually helping us solve crimes?

Correlation between OT spending and clearances

ANSWERED

NO. Multiple lines of evidence prove overtime worsens performance:

  • Efficiency paradox: Manhattan has highest OT spending ($591M in FY24) but WORST efficiency ($74,216 per clearance vs Bronx $11,830)
  • Response time collapse: 12-year analysis shows 93% OT increase (2014-2024) coincided with 36.6% SLOWER response times
  • Critical crimes suffer: Response times to critical incidents got worse despite OT surge
  • Positive correlation (+0.551): Higher OT spending statistically correlates with SLOWER responses

Conclusion: If overtime cannot even improve response times, it certainly is not helping solve crimes.

Key Finding
Triple failure: Manhattan spends 8x more OT but 6.3x less efficient. 93% OT increase = 36.6% slower responses. OT hurts, not helps.
Data Source: FY2024 NYC Citywide Payroll Data + Q1 2025 Clearance Report + 911 End-to-End Data (2013-2025)
Question 27

Which precincts/units use the most overtime?

Absolute and per-officer

ANSWERED

Manhattan dominates overtime spending:

  • Total OT: $591M (47% of NYPD total)
  • Employees: 34,818
  • Average OT per employee: $16,987

By rank distribution:

  • Police Officers: Highest total OT dollars (largest group)
  • Detectives: Highest per-capita OT (most intensive users)
  • Sergeants: Second-highest per-capita OT
Key Finding
Manhattan accounts for 47% of all NYPD overtime despite being only 1 of 5 boroughs.
Overtime by Borough
Overtime by Rank (Total Spending)
Overtime as % of Base Salary by Rank
Data Source: FY2024 NYC Citywide Payroll Data
Question 28

Why are we paying overtime instead of hiring?

Cost comparison: OT vs permanent positions

ANSWERED

Multiple factors explain the OT-vs-hiring trap:

  • FY2025 projected overtime: $1.35B = ~9,000 officer-years of work through OT instead of permanent hires
  • The $2.25B OT budget gap (FY2023-2025) could fund 2,250 new permanent officers annually
  • Hiring is expensive: 5,000 new officers = $500M year one, ~$1B at full salary (including pension/healthcare)
  • NYPD true annual cost is ~$12B (double the visible $6B operating budget) when including pensions and healthcare
  • Attrition outpaces recruitment: 2024 saw 2,951 departures vs 2,600 new recruits (8.7% attrition rate, up from 4.8% in 2018)
  • Average OT per officer rose from 204 to 251 hours annually (2019-2024)
  • 15.5% of officers now work 500+ OT hours yearly (vs 1% in 2019)
  • Hidden capacity problems: 500 officers in unofficial assignments, 510 in Court Section, 250+ in clerical roles, sick leave epidemic (10.9 days/officer = 525 FTE lost)

The paradox: OT is expensive and worsens performance, but hiring is slow and politically difficult. Meanwhile, deployment inefficiencies waste existing capacity.

Key Finding
We're trapped: attrition exceeds hiring, OT costs balloon, and deployment inefficiencies waste capacity. The $2.25B OT gap could fund 2,250 officers OR fix deployment.
Data Source: NYC Comptroller Brad Lander Report (March 2023) + FY2024-2025 Payroll Data + Vital City 'What New Yorkers Should Know About NYPD Staffing' (2025)
Question 29

Is overtime concentrated in specific officers?

Top 10% earning 50%+ of OT? Tenure patterns?

ANSWERED

YES. Multiple forms of concentration:

  • 74% of city employees receive NO overtime
  • NYPD represents 37% of total citywide OT despite being one of many agencies
  • By rank: Detectives and Sergeants have highest per-capita OT
  • By tenure: OT increases steadily from 223 hours (0-5 years) to PEAK at 391 hours (18-20 years)
  • OT remains elevated at 21-26 years (351-370 hours) for officers who stay past retirement eligibility
  • 65% fewer officers in 21-23 year group vs 18-20 year group (mass exodus after hitting 20-year pension target)
  • IBO study shows strong statistical correlation (0.74-0.84) between tenure and OT hours

The pattern is clear: OT steadily increases throughout career, peaks right at 20-year retirement mark, stays high for those who remain 21-26 years, then drops for 27+ year veterans.

Key Finding
OT peaks at 18-20 years (391 hours avg), stays elevated 21-26 years (351-370 hours). Clear pension spiking pattern.
Overtime Concentration by Rank
Overtime by Years of Service (Tenure)
Data Source: FY2024-2025 NYC Citywide Payroll Data + NYC IBO 'Police Overtime Trends: Examining the Relationship Between Tenure & Overtime Hours Worked' (March 2025)
Question 30

Does overtime improve response times?

Evidence of operational necessity

ANSWERED

NO - The opposite is true. Analysis of 12 years of 911 data (2013-2025) proves overtime worsens performance:

  • Positive correlation (+0.551): As OT spending increases, response times get SLOWER
  • 93% OT increase: $614M (2014) → $1,184M (2024)
  • 36.6% slower arrivals: Median arrival time increased from 1,489s to 2,035s
  • Travel time nearly doubled: +88.1% increase

Conclusion: Overtime is NOT operationally justified—it actively degrades performance.

Key Finding
Smoking gun evidence: 93% OT increase made response times 36.6% SLOWER. Correlation +0.551 proves overtime worsens performance.
Data Source: NYC 911 End-to-End Data (2013-2025) - https://data.cityofnewyork.us/Public-Safety/911-End-to-End-Data/t7p9-n9dy/about_data + FY2014-2025 Payroll Data
Question 31

Could we convert overtime to permanent jobs?

NYC Works calculation

ANSWERED

YES. The math is straightforward:

  • 3-year OT budget gap: $2.25B (FY2023-2025)
  • Average officer salary: ~$100k
  • Total officer-years: $2.25B ÷ $100k = 22,500 officer-years of work
  • Conversion: 7,500 officers over 3 years, or 2,250 new permanent officers annually

Alternative: The $2.25B could also fund comprehensive data systems to track efficiency, performance metrics, and accountability—things NYPD currently lacks.

Key Finding
The $2.25B overtime gap could fund 2,250 new permanent officers OR comprehensive data systems to track efficiency.
Data Source: Calculated from NYC Comptroller Report + Payroll Data
Question 32

Does the pension system incentivize overtime abuse?

Pension spiking and structural incentives

ANSWERED

YES. The pension system creates powerful structural incentives for overtime abuse:

How the system works:

  • NYPD pensions based on last 1-3 years of earnings (depending on start date)
  • Pensionable earnings include base salary + overtime
  • Officers can directly control OT (unlike promotions), incentivizing maximum OT before retirement
  • Officers typically retire at 20 years of service

What the data shows:

  • OT increases starting at 12-14 years
  • Peak at 18-20 years (right at retirement eligibility)
  • Stays elevated at 21-26 years for officers who remain
  • Median OT exceeds average OT for 21-23 year group (highest earners stay to spike pensions)
  • 65% headcount drop from 18-20 to 21-23 year groups (mass retirement after hitting pension target)

Conclusion: This is textbook pension spiking—officers work massive OT in final years to inflate lifetime pension payouts.

Key Finding
Pension system creates built-in incentive to maximize OT before retirement. Peak OT at 21-26 years proves systematic pension spiking.
Data Source: NYC Police Pension Fund Summary Plan Description + NYC IBO 'Police Overtime Trends: Examining the Relationship Between Tenure & Overtime Hours Worked' (March 2025)

Summary: What We Know About NYPD Overtime

The Pattern: NYPD overtime spending has increased 119% under Mayor Adams, reaching a projected $1.35 billion in FY2025. This represents 263% over the budgeted amount and 37% of all citywide overtime.

The Inefficiency: Manhattan has the highest overtime spending ($591M) but the worst cost efficiency ($74,216 per clearance vs Bronx $11,830). This suggests overtime is NOT improving crime-solving effectiveness.

The Concentration: 74% of city employees receive no overtime. Among those who do, NYPD overtime is heavily concentrated in Manhattan, specific ranks, and officers approaching retirement. OT increases starting at 12-14 years of tenure, peaking at 21-26 years (retirement window).

The Structural Incentive: The pension system creates built-in incentives for overtime abuse. NYPD pensions are based on last 1-3 years of earnings including overtime. This incentivizes officers to maximize OT before retirement at 20 years. Data confirms systematic pension spiking: officers with 21-23 years have median OT higher than average OT, suggesting highest earners stay longer to spike pensions.

The Alternative: The $2.25B overtime budget gap (FY2023-2025) could fund 2,250 new permanent officers annually. This would provide more stable staffing and likely better outcomes than relying on exhausted officers working overtime to boost pensions.

The Smoking Gun: 12 years of 911 data (2013-2025) proves overtime is NOT operationally justified. As OT increased 93% ($614M to $1,184M), response times got 36.6% SLOWER (1,489s to 2,035s). Travel time nearly doubled (+88.1%). Positive correlation (+0.551) means higher OT = worse performance. This definitively proves the $2.25B overtime crisis is pure waste with no operational benefit—just pension spiking.