Participatory Budgeting Analysis

Complete strategic analysis for District 39 budget delegates: What wins elections, who participates, and what actually gets built.

1,491

Projects Analyzed (2012-2017)

~30,700

Avg Survey Responses/Year Citywide

~4,335

Avg D39 Responses/Year (2017-2019)

Project Outcomes: What Wins

Analysis of 1,491 PB projects (2012-2017) to understand what types of projects win, optimal cost ranges, and success patterns.

Key Findings

•In District 39: 45.7% of ballot projects get funded (43 won, 51 lost from 2012-2017)
•Within D39, Education projects win most often (60% success rate, 12 of 20 funded)
•Citywide pattern: <$100k projects win 45%, $100-300k win 38%, $300-400k drops to 30%
•Citywide: Security cameras (62.5%) and Bus Time displays (55.6%) win most consistently
•Projects over $500k face tough odds citywide (24.4% success rate)
•Basketball courts (13%) and sidewalk repair (18%) rarely get funded citywide

Featured Visualization

Interactive Visualizations

D39 Win Rate by Category

Which project types succeed in your district

D39 Win Rate by Cost

Optimal price ranges for winning

D39 Vote Threshold Analysis

How many votes you need to win

Citywide Project Types

What actually gets completed across NYC

Cost vs Votes Analysis

Relationship between project cost and votes

📊 Strategic Data Tables

Highest Success Rates by Project Type (Citywide)

Project Type	Win Rate	Examples	Median Cost	Why It Works
Security Cameras	62.5%	35/56	$175k	Clear safety benefit, proven tech
Bus Time/Real-Time Info	55.6%	25/45	$175k	Popular, MTA experienced
Bathroom Renovation	46.0%	23/50	$290k	Clear necessity, DOE familiar
Technology/STEM	43.9%	123/280	$183k	Education priority, flexible
Library Improvement	40.6%	52/128	$250k	NYPL has capacity

Lower Success Rates - Learn What to Avoid

Project Type	Win Rate	Examples	Median Cost	Why It Struggles
Basketball Courts	13.0%	6/46	$413k	Expensive, limited users
Sidewalk Repair	18.2%	4/22	$300k	Seen as city's job
Dog Run	25.0%	5/20	$175k	Limited population

Win Rates by Cost Bracket (Citywide)

Cost Range	Win Rate	Total Projects	Avg Votes	Insight
<$100k	40.1%	162	621	Good odds, may seem too small
$100-200k	36.9%	214	728	Sweet spot begins ⭐
$200-300k	38.3%	235	739	Sweet spot peak ⭐⭐
$300-400k	28.6%	182	776	Win rate drops significantly
$400-500k	33.1%	242	757	Many projects, tough competition
$500k+	22.5%	71	853	High bar to clear ⚠️

Key Takeaway: There's a clear cliff at $300k. Projects $300k+ need exceptionally strong justification.

District 39 Category Performance vs Citywide

Category	D39 Win Rate	D39 Projects	vs Citywide
Arts/Culture/Community	66.7%	3	Much better ⬆️
Environment	62.5%	8	Much better ⬆️
Education	60.0%	20	Better ⬆️
Parks & Recreation	54.5%	11	Much better ⬆️
Transit	27.3%	11	Worse ⬇️
Streets	28.6%	7	Worse ⬇️

D39 Advantage: Education, environment, and parks outperform citywide. Infrastructure underperforms.

Voter Engagement: Who Participates

Analysis of survey responses (2017-2019) to understand voter demographics, information sources, and engagement patterns. Note: Same individuals may appear in multiple years.

Key Findings

•D39 averages ~4,335 survey responses/year (14.1% of citywide avg of ~30,700/year)
•Consistently highest participation: 14.6% (2017), 13.4% (2018), 14.3% (2019)
•82% digital voters vs 70% citywide - most digitally engaged district
•Council office is 2x as effective in D39: 17% heard via Council vs 7% citywide
•Demographics: 86% Bachelor's+, 60% earn $100k+, 75% age 35+
•Equity gap: 78% White (vs 52% citywide), underrepresentation of communities of color

Interactive Visualizations

D39 Demographics Overview

Age, gender, education, income breakdown

D39 Information Sources

How D39 voters hear about PB vs citywide

D39 Digital vs Paper

Ballot preferences by demographics

District Participation Comparison

D39 vs all other districts

Education Level Comparison

D39 vs other high-participation districts

👥 Voter Demographics & Engagement Data

Age Distribution

Age Group	D39 %	Citywide %	D39 Count
35-44	32.8%	26.5%	4,266
45-54	22.5%	16.4%	2,926
25-34	16.0%	19.9%	2,081
55-64	12.3%	9.8%	1,600
65+	9.8%	9.6%	1,274
14-24	6.6%	12.7%	858

Core audience is 35-54 (55% of participants). Youth under 25 underrepresented - growth opportunity.

Education Levels

Level	D39	Citywide
Graduate+	53.4%	37.6%
Bachelor's	33.0%	28.1%
HS or Less	2.7%	8.9%

86% have Bachelor's+ (vs 66% citywide)

Income Distribution

Bracket	D39	Citywide
$100k+	42.8%	26.0%
$75-99k	11.0%	10.3%
<$25k	2.4%	6.0%

60% earn $100k+ (highest in NYC)

How D39 Voters Hear About PB

Source	D39 %	Citywide %	D39 Count	Effectiveness
Council Office	16.8%	7.0%	2,191	⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ 2x citywide!
Online/Social	11.2%	9.5%	1,454	⭐⭐⭐⭐
Community Org	3.6%	3.9%	468	⭐⭐⭐
Child/School	3.5%	5.1%	461	⭐⭐⭐

✓ Council office is D39's superpower: 2x as effective as citywide average

Digital-first district: 82% use digital ballots vs 70% citywide

Demographic Representation (Equity Analysis)

Ethnicity	D39 %	Citywide %	Representation Gap
White	78.2%	52.0%	+26.2% overrepresented
Black/African American	2.2%	12.2%	-10.0% underrepresented
Latino/a	2.5%	10.4%	-7.9% underrepresented
Asian	7.2%	9.8%	-2.6% underrepresented

⚠️ Equity Alert: Communities of color are significantly underrepresented in D39 PB participation

Implementation Reality: What Gets Built

Analysis of 678 winning projects (2012-2017) tracking what happens after the vote - which projects get completed and why.

Data Limitation: This tracker was last updated in ~2018 and is now 8+ years old. Current implementation rates are unknown. Use as historical reference only.

Key Findings

•⚠️ As of 2018: Only 7.8% of 2012-2017 projects were complete
•Pattern: Early projects (2012-2013) hit 50% completion by 2018, later projects slower
•Best agencies (as of 2018): NYCHA 20%, BPL 18%, SCA 9%
•Worst agencies: DOT 3.3%, DPR 3.3%, most libraries 0%
•What completed: Technology purchases, school renovations, security cameras
•What got stuck: Infrastructure, parks construction, experimental projects